Within the next week, residents of Arlington will be voting either for or against a proposal for a new baseball complex for the Texas Rangers. Within this post, I'll outline a series of the benefits being described for this deal and why and how they are misleading.
Let's start with the boldest claim: No New Taxes!
If no new taxes were involved, a vote would be unnecessary, so at face value, this is a lie. From a technical perspective, you can argue that it's not a new tax but simply an extension of an old tax. At the end of the day, the vote comes down to "Vote No" to reduce your taxes by 0.5% on sales tax, on rental cars, and on hotel rooms. "Vote Yes" to maintain taxes at their current rates.
The next claim to discuss: 2.4M visitors annually!
Source: http://www.arlington-tx.gov/ballparkproject/wp-content/uploads/sites/61/2016/06/2016-HRA-Economic-Impact-Executive-Summary-Presentation.pdf
Let's evaluate the reasonableness of that (major) input by looking at the Rangers attendance history...
http://www.baseball-almanac.com/teams/rangatte.shtml
Over the last decade, the Rangers have averaged roughly 2.6M in attendance. The accuracy of this report depends on 92% of all Rangers visitors coming from 'out of town'. Now, indubitably, a significant portion of those visitors are from other parts of the metroplex such as the various suburbs, Fort Worth, and Dallas. These are not the visitors using hotel rooms or rental cars. For these visitors, we'd be better off investing in infrastructure (such as connecting the TRE to our entertainment district) to make visiting Arlington cheaper and easier so that they spend more money while they're here.
If you've been to a game or multiple games, what would your best guess be for the number of true out-of-town visitors at a game? 10%? That's not nothing, bringing approximately 260,000 visitors annually, but still a dramatic reduction.
What about the claim that Dallas is out to take our Rangers!
A private investor recently donated $50M to pay help pay for a park, indicating that "Dallas indeed has the money to make it happen." Except that, $50M isn't even 10% of what Dallas would need to cover costs. Dallas recently had their fire and police pensions downgraded significantly which will require over a billion ($1B) in additional funding, with that amount growing by the day. Further, their credit rating has already been reduced with a negative outlook, which makes borrowing costs for the city higher. Finally, Texas has a cap on how high the sales tax can be set at. Arlington is below that cap, Dallas is already at the cap, so they cannot increase sales taxes. They would have to increase property taxes and would have to raise significantly more in taxes than Arlington would for the same stadium.
But, that only covers why Dallas can't get the Rangers. The Rangers have reasons to not move themselves. They've already invested millions of dollars into the Texas Live project with commitments coming in from Guy Fieri and other big names that will solidify the value of our entertainment district. That being said, the Rangers would want a premium to leave -- that premium could be a position in Victory Square, but you're talking a multi-billion dollar project to build a new stadium there when incorporating real estate, interest costs, etc.
Summary: The Rangers aren't leaving anytime soon.
Finally, what could a reduction in our sales tax do for local spending? The median family income for Arlington is $51,000. If you assume that approximately 50% of that is spent on sales tax goods, that comes out to a cost of approximately $128 per family in additional taxes. What could you do with an extra $128 per year? If everyone in Arlington spent an extra $128 annually, the total economic contribution would be approximately $20,000,000. This would create its own additional jobs, give Arlington a competitive retail advantage over our neighbors, and make local businesses more profitable (and thus, more likely to stay: like the Rangers).
Vote No. It is the best vote you can cast for Arlington.
